1.3 SMALL ISLANDS AND ISOLATED GRIDS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Volume 1: National Energy Plan)

1.3 SMALL ISLANDS AND ISOLATED GRIDS

The small island and isolated grids power and transmission development plan is one of the major components of the Missionary Electrification Development Plan (MEDP) which the DOE shall prepare annually as embodied in Rule 13 of the Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) of the Electricity Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA).

1.3.1 Peak Demand

The average annual peak demand growth rate of 9.3 percent for the entire planning period will entail an additional capacity of 331.2 MW. Electricity generation will grow from 538.4 GWh in 2005 to 809 GWh by 2010 and further to 1,431 GWh by 2014.

Luzon will contribute 73.9 percent share of the country’s total capacity mix in the small island grids. A total of 229.2 MW will be added to the systems for the ten-year planning period to sustain the demand growth rate of 8.6 percent. Meanwhile, electricity generation will increase from 420 GWh in 2005 to 605 GWh in 2010 and 1,114 GWh by 2014. Electricity sales will likewise increase by an average annual growth rate of 11.4 percent from 400 GWh in 2005 to 574 GWh in 2010 and finally to 1,058 GWh by 2014.

The average annual peak demand growth rate of 12.7 percent for the entire planning period will entail an additional capacity of 29.3 MW in the Visayas small island grids. Electricity sales will grow from 35.3 GWh in 2005 to 63.9 GWh by 2010 and 103 GWh by 2014. Gross generation will grow from 36 GWh in 2005 to 65 GWh by 2010 and 105 GWh by 2014.

Mindanao will contribute 21.5 percent share of the country’s total capacity mix in the small island grids. The demand growth rate in Mindanao of 10.8 percent entails the installation of around 19 MW additional capacities within the planning period. Consequently, gross generation will grow from 82 GWh in 2005 to 138 GWh by 2010 and further to 212 GWh by 2014.

1.3.1 Transmission Development

A total of 931 line kilometers (km.) of transmission lines will be needed in the small island grids in the next ten years to augment the required capacity additions. This comprises 778 km. for Luzon, 58 km. for Visayas and 95 km. for Mindanao.

1.3.2 Expanded Rural Electrification

Wider access to reliable supply of electricity (100 percent barangay electrification by 2008 and 90 percent household connection by 2017) will be the country’s goal of rural electrification as it starts the year 2005 with an electrification level of 91.4 percent nationwide. The Department of Energy (DOE) is committed to electrify 1,476 barangays earmarked for 2005, of which 712 barangays are spill-overs of 2004 due to several constraints encountered by the implementing offices and agencies. In 2008, 505 barangays will still be energized to achieve the 100 percent completion level.

Target barangays will be electrified through the installation of renewable energy systems in off-grid areas and expansion of about 17,748 ckt.-km. of distribution lines that will, in turn, require the installation of additional 1,635 MVA of substation capacity in grid areas. Likewise, around 9,897 ckt. kms. of distribution lines will be rehabilitated to contribute to the reliability and efficiency of electricity service during the ten-year period.